The poll represents 442 likely voters sampled May 7-9. By party affiliation 50% of the respondents considered themselves Republican, 32% Democrats and 18% independents. Bilbray is the preference of 82% of the self-described Republicans, while Busby is the preference of 95% of Democrats and 54% of independents.

One point of interest, 54% of the Republicans surveyed did not vote in the April 11 special election, where just 35% of the Democrats claimed to have not participated. Bilbray's number therefore reflect the contribution of self-described likely voters, who did not bother to fill out an absentee ballot or drop by a polling station to choose their party's candidate for the run-off. What are to odds that this group will now turn out in mass to vote for Bilbray?

This poll was taken before Eric Roach "stood down" in his primary challenge of Bilbray and before Bill Hauf alerted the media that he was seriously considering an "aggressive" challenge of Bilbray in the primary.

All in all, this poll is good news for Busby. She has moved from being slightly behind Bilbray right after the special election (although within that poll's margin of error) to a dead even tie in a heavily Republican district.

The National Republican Congressional Committee released a television ad in San Diego today that is filled with outright lies and a blatant disregard for the truth that is breathtaking even for the Republican Party.

The ad represents a new low for a party that had pretty much plumbed the depths of sleazy political dirty tricks. Unlike 2004's Swift Boat attacks on John Kerry, this ad comes directly from the Republican Party. This ad couldn't have hit the air in San Diego without the approval of county Republican leader, Ron Nehring.

This ad is filled with such massive lies and slanderous statements that any honest Republican should disavow it on sight. Here are the lies and some of the direct repudiations from the Busby campaign.

A new poll that gives a very comprehensive look at the congressional race in the CA-50 was made public today. The poll conducted by Competitive Edge provides extensive insight into both potential voter preferences and the key issues from the voter's perspective.

If the poll is an accurate predictor, Democratic candidate Francine Busby will garner the most votes in the April 11 Special Election, but she will fall short of the 50%+1 requirement for election and will be forced into a run-off with Republican former congressman, Brian Bilbray.

As of the end of December the vast majority of campaign contributions Howard Kaloogian had raised for his campaign in the CA-50 were from outside the district. Kaloogian has little traction within the north San Diego County district, simply because his right wing neo-con views and lack of identification with any of the district's issues place him far outside the mainstream.

By the end of December only 28% of Kaloogian's top 100 contributors were from the 50th District. Of that group, over one third were from six families living in Rancho Santa Fe. It certainly looks like Howard has found his sweet spot in the 50th, but Rancho Santa Fe hardly represent the interests of the district. You can check out Howard's money sources here.

Why would a straight-laced guy like Doolittle hold a Republican Party fund raiser in Las Vegas? Why do people rob banks? That's where the money is says Doolittle in the Sacramento Bee.

According to Doolittle, Las Vegas "is a place that our target audience, namely these $5,000 donors, would like to go."

The Bee focuses on a major Doolittle fund raising event held at the exclusive and expensive Venetian Resort Hotel Casino on the Las Vegas Strip. The 2005 event was designed to haul in big bucks for Doolittle and the Republicans.

So, in essence Doolittle was sent out by his party's leadership to raise money so that the crew in Washington could have a nice meal.

According to the North County Times, millionaire Roach has already loaned his campaign much of the over $750,000 it has spent on the special election campaign.

Roach is one of three millionaire Republicans in the race who are self-funding the vast majority of their campaign costs. Of this club, Roach is the most recent and least know of the three. He is spending heavily just to earn some name recognition against entrenched and well know Republicans politicians who are in the 50th race.

Roach's tripping of the "millionaires' amendment" potentially allows the 20 or so non-millionaire candidates in the race to dramatically increase their fund raising both from individual donors and, in the case of Democrat Francine Busby, the state and national Democratic Party.

Certainly, when Nancy Cunningham filed for divorce from flying ace, Randy Cunningham just two years into their marriage, she felt victimized.

"He is a very aggressive spontaneously assaultive person," she wrote in a court declaration, "and I fear for my immediate physical safety and well being."

But, the Cunningham's reconciled and Nancy worked diligently to smooth Duke's rough edges and restrain his spontaneously assaultive personality.